Traditional signs of a debt crisis, such as currency collapse or depleted foreign exchange reserves, indicate a record number of developing countries in difficulty, writes Reuters.
Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Russia, Suriname and Zambia are already in default, Belarus is on the brink of collapse and at least a dozen other countries are in danger, while rising borrowing, inflation and debt are rising. fuels fears of economic collapse, Mediafax notes.
Analysts estimate that $ 400 billion in debt is at stake. Argentina has by far the largest debt, over 150 billion dollars, while the next are Ecuador and Egypt, with 40-45 billion dollars.
Veterans of the crisis hope that many states will still be able to avoid insolvency, especially if global markets calm down and the IMF intervenes.
These are the countries at risk:
ARGENTINE
It holds the world record for sovereign default. The peso is now trading at a discount of almost 50% on the black market, reserves are at a critically low level, and bonds are trading at just 20 cents a dollar - less than half of what they were after the country's debt restructuring in 2020.
The government does not have to pay substantial debts until 2024, but after that they accelerate, and concerns have arisen over the possibility that powerful Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner could put pressure on the country to give up support for the International Monetary Fund.
UKRAINE
Russia's invasion means Ukraine will almost certainly have to restructure its debt of more than $ 20 billion, warn heavy investors such as Morgan Stanley and Amundi.
The crisis comes in September, when bonds worth $ 1.2 billion will have to be paid. Kiev could pay, but with Naftogaz, a state-owned company, demanding a two-year debt freeze this week, investors suspect the government will follow suit.
TUNISIA
A budget deficit of almost 10%, one of the highest public sector wage bills in the world and fears that securing or at least complying with a program with the IMF could be difficult due to pressure from President Kais Saied to strengthen control over power and on local unions.
Along with Ukraine and El Salvador, Tunisia is on the list of the top three countries that could become insolvent, compiled by Morgan Stanley. "An agreement with the International Monetary Fund is becoming imperative," said Marouan Abassi, head of Tunisia's central bank.
GHANA
Furious loans have raised the debt ratio relative to Ghana's GDP to almost 85%. Its currency, yielding, has lost almost a quarter of its value this year and the country has already spent more than half of its tax revenue on interest on debt. Inflation is also approaching 30%.
EGYPT
Egypt has a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 95% and has recorded one of the largest international cash exoduses this year - about $ 11 billion, according to JPMorgan.
Funding firm FIM Partners estimates that Egypt has strong foreign currency debt of $ 100 billion over the next five years, including $ 3.3 billion in 2024.
In March, Cairo devalued the pound by 15% and called for IMF aid, but bond spreads are now more than 1,200 basis points, and default swaps (CDS) - an investor's hedging tool - estimate a chance of 55% that Egypt fails to make a payment.
Francesc Balcells, CIO of EM debt at FIM Partners, however, estimates that about half of the $ 100 billion Egypt has to pay by 2027 is to the IMF or bilaterally, mainly in the Gulf. "Under normal circumstances, Egypt should be able to pay," Balcells said.
KENYA
Kenya spends about 30% of its interest on interest. Its bonds have lost almost half their value and currently have no access to capital markets, which is a problem given that $ 2 billion bonds will mature in 2024.
Regarding Kenya, Egypt, Tunisia and Ghana, David Rogovic of Moody's said: "These countries are the most vulnerable only because of the amount of debt maturing in relation to reserves and fiscal challenges."
ETHIOPIA
Addis Ababa plans to be one of the first countries to achieve a debt reduction under the G20 joint program. Progress has been delayed by the ongoing civil war, although in the meantime the country continues to service its $ 1 billion international bond issue alone.
EL SALVADOR
The transformation of bitcoin into a legal means of payment has almost closed the door to IMF hopes. Confidence has declined to the point where a $ 800 million bond issue maturing over six months is trading at a 30% discount and long-term bonds at 70%.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan struck a crucial deal with the IMF this week. The measure could not have been more appropriate, given that high energy import prices have pushed the country to the brink of a balance of payments crisis.
Foreign exchange reserves fell to $ 9.8 billion, barely enough for five weeks of imports. The Pakistani rupee has depreciated to record lows. The new government needs to cut spending quickly now, as it spends 40 percent of its revenue on interest.
BELARUS
Western sanctions brought Russia into default last month, and Belarus is now facing the same harsh treatment after joining Moscow in the Ukrainian campaign.
ECUADOR
This Latin American country went into bankruptcy just two years ago, but again went into crisis due to violent protests and an attempt to oust President Guillermo Lasso.
It has a lot of debt, and as the government subsidizes fuel and food, JPMorgan has raised its public sector fiscal deficit forecast to 2.4% of GDP this year and 2.1% next year. Bond margins exceeded 1,500 basis points.
NIGERIA
Bond margins were just over 1,000 basis points, but Nigeria's next $ 500 million bond payment, which will take place in a year's time, should be easily covered by reserves, which have steadily improved since June. . However, Nigeria spends almost 30% of government revenue on interest on debt.
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